Fading hope for Iran?
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From the editor of Jane's Intelligence Digest
Iran's parliamentary election crisis is raising hopes among Western intelligence agencies that victory for the conservatives will lead to mounting destabilisation and the eventual ousting of the country's hardline Islamic leadership. The reality is rather different. Rising popular apathy towards the political system and widespread disillusionment with the failure of the reformist administration headed by President Mohammad Khatami will assist the conservatives in their effort to regain control of the legislature. People who won't even vote are unlikely to stage mass uprisings in the streets of Tehran.
This raises an interesting question as to the near term future of US foreign policy in Iran. Attempts to counter moderate voter apathy could run afoul of meddling in the internal affairs of the state, yet allowing the hardliners to regain control of the legislature would only upset any possible rapprochement between the US and the government of Iran.